Links from around the Asia Pacific

Some of the more interesting developments and commentary from Asia over the last few days:

–New Zealand has released its first Defence White Paper (PDF) in thirteen years.

–The Lowy Institute’s Jenny Hayward-Jones looks ahead to to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Papua New Guinea tomorrow by looking back at Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell’s articulation of U.S. interests in the Pacific.

–A recent Guardian article on internet censorship in Southeast Asia launched a number of objections to the paper’s comparison of the region’s laws with China’s. Meanwhile, the New York Times‘ Seth Mydans profiles Chiranuch Premchaiporn, whose website has brought her to the forefront of the debate over press freedom in Thailand.

–As if the Western Pacific needed another hot territorial dispute, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev visited the disputed Kurile Islands on Monday, angering Japan just days before Medvedev is scheduled to attend the APEC Leaders’ Summit in Yokohama. France24 has the details:

Southeast Asian Sub Purchases Not Aimed at China

Singapore's first sub, the RSS Challenger, docked at Changi Naval Base. Photo by Lucian Teo, used under a Creative Commons License.

By Dzirhan Mahadzir, freelance defence journalist based in Malaysia, and Malaysia correspondent for Janes Defence Weekly.

Joshua Kurlantzick has a post up on Asia Unbound about a Southeast Asian naval arms race. He argues that countries in the region are sending a message to China through their purchases of military materiel. Vietnam may be doing that. But for the other countries cited– Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia– that’s far from the case.

In fact, it is questionable whether it can even be said that there is an arms race in the region. Kurlantzick cites the Stokholm Institute for Peace Research (SIPRI) database in noting that arms spending has doubled between 2005 and 2009. I would use caution in consulting the SIPRI database for these purposes, as it does not take into account inflationary pressures and the rising cost of military equipment. SIPRI’s definition of arms is also pretty wide, including fighting ships and combat aircraft, as well as non-lethal assets such as transport planes and military training equipment. So it does not necessarily follow that spending increases documented by SIPRI represent a “race” to build up combat capabilities.

Southeast Asian nations are, however, gradually building up their conventional capabilities, befitting their increased level of development. The primary impetus for particular purchases, though, is not China, but similar purchases by neighboring states. This isn’t to say that China of no concern, but it’s not the main factor.

Chairman’s Statement from First ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus

Chairman’s Statement of the First ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus: “ADMM-Plus: Strategic Cooperation for Peace, Stability, and Development in the Region”

Ha Noi, 12 October 2010

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1. The First ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting – Plus (ADMM-Plus) was convened in Ha Noi, Viet Nam on 12 October 2010. The Meeting was chaired by General Phung Quang Thanh, Minister of National Defence of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam.

 

2. The Meeting was attended by the Defence Ministers and Representatives of Defence Ministers from ten ASEAN Member States and eight ASEAN Dialogue Partners (hereby referred to as the “Plus” countries), namely Australia, China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, the Russian Federation, and the United States. The Secretary-General of ASEAN was also in attendance.

3. His Excellency Mr. Nguyen Tan Dung, Prime Minister of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam attended the opening of the Meeting and delivered the welcome remarks, in which he underscored the significance of establishing the ADMM-Plus. After the Meeting, the Defence Ministers and Representatives of Defence Ministers paid a courtesy call to His Excellency Mr. Nguyen Minh Triet, President of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam. At the call, the President welcomed the ADMM-Plus in enhancing defence cooperation between ASEAN and the “Plus” countries.

4. The Meeting welcomed the establishment of the ADMM-Plus and congratulated Viet Nam for hosting of the First ADMM-Plus, which represented a significant milestone in ASEAN’s history. The ADMM-Plus is the first official defence forum involving Defence Ministers of ASEAN Member States and key extra-regional countries.

5. The Meeting recognised the positive contributions by the “Plus” countries in enhancing peace, stability and development in Southeast Asia. The Meeting also welcomed the interest of the “Plus” countries in promoting closer cooperation with ASEAN through the ADMM-Plus.

2nd US ASEAN Summit: What’s on the Menu in Manhattan?

By Ernest Z. Bower, Senior Adviser & Director, CSIS Southeast Asia Program

SUMMARY

US President Barack Obama will host eight of the ten leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)[i] in New York on Friday, September 24, 2010 at the 2^nd US ASEAN Summit.  The meeting underlines renewed American policy energy being invested in Southeast Asia.  Headlines from the discussion should focus on three areas:

1.       Security alignment including a restatement of a common position on the South China Sea;

2.       Economic growth and trade – particularly ASEAN’s leaders seeking an update from the President on the health of the US economy and a read on whether the mid-term US Congressional elections might be an inflection point after which the US can return to a proactive posture on trade; and

3.       Burma – specifically exploring a way forward on how the US and ASEAN can encourage Burma’s leaders to introduce political space in the November elections or beyond.

The fact the meeting is taking place in September in the United States is important in that it institutionalizes renewed US engagement in ASEAN ahead of key steps forward in the creating of regional security and trade architecture in Asia.

On the other hand, the fact that the Summit is taking place in New York not Washington and without the leader of ASEAN’s largest country and economy, Indonesia, underlines the fact that while policy intent is clearly substantive engagement, there is still much work to be done to align the US and ASEAN.

Despite the best intentions of the principles, the meeting will certainly be viewed through the prism of perceived increased tension between China and its Asian neighbors particularly related to disputed maritime territories.

Here are some Critical Questions about the Summit and what we can expect:

China and the World: A Case for Panda Diplomacy

By Tommy Koh, Ambassador-at-Large at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Singapore

The simultaneous rise of China and India is the biggest growth story of the 21^st century. It has the potential to change the power and civilisational balance of the world. The rise of China has inspired both admiration and fear.

Lessons from History

I believe that if we want to understand China’s worldview, we must begin by understanding China’s history. A country’s past often provides one with a key to interpreting its present and predicting its future. What strikes one most about China’s long history, is that it was often invaded.

From the Khitans in the 10th century to the Jurchen in 12th, from Mongols in the 13th century to the Manchus in the 17th, China has been ruled by foreigners for long stretches in its history.

Of greater salience, of course, is China’s recent history. Many Chinese today remember the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century as a period of great humiliation for China. It was invaded by the Western imperial powers and Japan and subjected to unequal treaties. This unhappy period ended only in 1949, with the establishment of the People’s Republic of China.

China was not, however, always the victim of aggression. During the Yuan dynasty, the Mongolian rulers of China conquered Korea and, using Korea as the launching pad, tried to conquer Japan twice, but unsuccessfully. The Mongols destroyed Pagan in Myanmar and invaded both Vietnam and Java.  However, when China was ruled by Han rulers, it was not an aggressive or expansionist state.

What China wants from the World

What the Chinese people want is for China to be a strong nation-state, able to defend Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity and her far flung interests. China wants to be respected by the world. It wants a seat at the top table.

I do not think China is a revolutionary power seeking to export Chinese communism or the Chinese model of development, the so-called Beijing consensus. I do not have the impression that China is seeking hegemony, whether at the global or regional level. I am also not persuaded by the view that China is scheming to exclude the United States from Asia.

China wants and needs a peaceful external environment to concentrate on internal development. It would, however, oppose any attempt by any country or group of countries, to contain or impede China’s rise.

China’s Economic Power

In 2010, the Chinese economy is about US$5 trillion, just ahead of Japan, at $4.9 trillion. China is, however, still quite a distance behind the United States, at US$14.2 trillion, and the EU at US$18.4 trillion. If China continues to grow at 7+ per cent per annum, it will catch up with the US in 20 to 30 years. China is, however, still a relatively poor country. Its per capita income is only US$3,500, compared to over US$45,000 for the US. By size of economy, China ranks No. 2 in the world.  However, by per capita income, China ranks No. 100.

China is a major player in international trade, accounting for 7.3% (2009) of world trade. She has replaced Germany as the world’s No. 1 exporter.